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Lender Confidence Rises Significantly, Phoenix Management Survey

December 19, 2016, 08:00 AM
Filed Under: Banking News

From the fourth quarter Phoenix Management "Lending Climate in America" Survey, results shows a positive outlook on the U.S. economy in both the near and long term.

Lenders confidence on how they expect the U.S. economy to perform beyond the next 6 months significantly increased 60 points from a 1.90 in Q3 to 2.50, which represents the highest GPA since Q4 2004. Their GPA for the U.S. economy during the next 6 months increased 26 points to 2.19 from the previous quarter's results of 1.93, and Lenders are now more optimistic about longer term economic performance than near term performance. This new found confidence is further supported by the improvement in indices (versus Q3) that measure commercial lending sentiment, loan losses, bankruptcies and unemployment.

Lenders were also surveyed (after the election) regarding the economic indicator they will be most focused on in determining the success of President-elect Trump. The majority of lenders (62%) agree that GDP growth will be the economic factor they will focus on, while 32% of lenders surveyed will focus on new job growth in determining the success of President-elect Trump.

In addition, Lenders have also shown a marked shift in the factors they believe will have the strongest potential to affect the near term economy. Unstable energy prices tops the list this quarter with 58% of lenders favoring this factor (up from 29% in Q3). However, forty-five percent of lenders believe that the stability of the stock market (2 percentage point increase from Q3) and, thirty-three percent of lenders believe the U.S. Budget Deficit (6 percentage point decrease from Q3) will have the strongest potential to affect the U.S. economy in the near-term.

With approximately 160,000 jobs added in October, according to the Wall Street Journal, Lenders were also asked what they believe will be the most important variable to for a strong labor market to continue. A total of sixty-four percent of the lenders surveyed believe cutting taxes to increase spending and stimulate overall economic growth is the most important variable for the continuation of a strong labor market.

"The recent 4Q 2016 results displays a more positive shift compared to the economic uncertainty we saw in the marketplace in the previous quarter's results. With the election of Donald Trump, it appears as though lenders have become more positive about the prospects for continued growth and improvement of the U.S. economy throughout 2017" says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Shareholder of Phoenix.

To see the full results of Phoenix's "Lending Climate in America" Survey, please visit

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