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MAPI Forecast: Moderate Growth Likely Pending Compromise on Fiscal Cliff

November 28, 2012, 07:08 AM
Filed Under: Economic Commentary

Major issues still need to be addressed, but presuming the United States gets its fiscal house in some semblance of order, the U.S. economy could be in a transition from sluggish growth to a longer period of moderate growth, according to a new report.

The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 1.8% in 2013 and by 2.8% in 2014, a slight increase from the 1.7% anticipated for 2013 and the 2.7% expected in 2014 in MAPI’s August report. The new forecast includes a five-year window where it envisions GDP growth averaging 2.7% form 2013-2017, a subpar expansion following a deep recession, and with a high of 3.3% growth in 2015.

MAPI believes final 2012 GDP growth will be 2.1% and manufacturing production will be 4.2%.

“Much of the outlook is predicated on political dynamics,” noted Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., MAPI chief economist. “In order for the transition to moderate growth to occur successfully, there needs to be compromise on the ‘fiscal cliff’ issues, agreement on raising the debt ceiling early in 2013, and establishing a ‘grand compromise’ plan for meaningful long-term federal deficit reduction that phases in over several years.”

Manufacturing production is expected to show growth of 2.0T in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014. The 2013 figure is down from 2.3% and the 2014 estimate is down from 3.3% from the August forecast. Manufacturing is expected to see a net increase in hiring, with the sector expected to add 163,000 jobs in 2013, below the August forecast of 231,000 jobs. The longer term outlook is for an increase of 270,000 jobs in 2014 and 230,000 jobs in 2015, but a rise of only 150,000 jobs in 2016 and 97,000 jobs in 2017.

Production in non-high-tech industries is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2013 and by 3.7% in 2014. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 10% of all manufacturing, is anticipated to grow at a 3.0% rate in 2013 and 8.3% in 2014.

The forecast for inflation-adjusted investment in equipment and software is for growth of 6.% in 2013 and 7.4% in 2014. Capital equipment spending in high-tech sectors will also rise. Inflation-adjusted expenditures for information processing equipment are anticipated to increase by 7.2% in 2013 and by 9.3% in 2014.

MAPI expects industrial equipment expenditures to advance by 5.2% in 2013 and by 8.6% in 2014. The outlook for spending on transportation equipment is for growth of 6.2% in 2013 and 4.0%in 2014. Spending on nonresidential structures will improve by only 0.6% in 2013 before improving by 6.8% in 2014.

Inflation-adjusted exports are anticipated to improve by 2.3% in 2013 and by 4.1% in 2014. Imports are expected to grow by 3.9% in 2012 and by 4.7% in 2013. MAPI forecasts overall unemployment to average 7.8% in 2013 and 7.4% in 2014. Over the five-year aggregate window of 2013-2017, unemployment is expected to average 6.8%.

“The unemployment rate will continue to fall but will not achieve 5.0% unemployment, the rate consistent with full employment,” Meckstroth said. “We forecast the average annual growth rate for manufacturing production will be 3.2% over the next five years, higher than the 2.7% anticipated for the overall economy.”

The refiners’ acquisition price per barrel of imported crude oil is expected to average $90.5 per barrel in 2013 and $87.60 in 2014.

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