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Annual GDP Growth Falling in Virtually All Large Economies

September 03, 2019, 09:00 AM
Filed Under: Economy

Annual GDP growth rates have been falling since mid-2018 in virtually all of the 20 large developed and emerging economies covered in Fitch Ratings' 20/20 Vision macro data chart pack. This underscores the drag on activity from the sharp global downturn in trade and manufacturing, which has only been cushioned - and not fully offset - by relative resilience in consumer spending and labour market conditions.

Focusing on quarterly year-over-year growth rates can sometimes give a clearer picture of underlying economic trends than high profile quarter-to-quarter movements, which can often be quite volatile. On this basis, the latest BEA data now show that annual growth in the US has been declining since mid-2018, in line with the pattern seen in China, the eurozone and virtually all other large economies covered in Fitch's Global Economic Outlook report.

This highlights the synchronised nature of the current slowdown and the powerful linkages between economies through trade.

"Weak domestic demand in China - evidenced more recently by a slowdown in housing starts - along with trade policy disruptions and related uncertainties are having widespread ramifications for the global economy," says Pawel Borowski, Economic Data and Research Analyst at Fitch Ratings.

Fitch's bi-monthly 20/20 Vision chart pack covers 20 major economies that are the focus of Fitch's economics team's global macro analysis. It plots five years of high frequency economic data for 20 variables, with consistent coverage across each country. The full report is available here (subscription required).

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