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ELFF Q4 2023 Industry Snapshot Projects 2.3% Annualized Growth in U.S. Economy

October 30, 2023, 06:00 AM
Filed Under: Equipment News

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation has released the Q4 2023 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot, an indispensable information resource for industry participants. Designed for use in executive briefings and presentations, the presentation slide deck summarizes the current conditions and projections for the U.S. economy and equipment finance industry with clear, easy-to-digest charts and short narratives of key trends.

Among the range of details in the Q4 Snapshot:

◊ The Foundation projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.3 percent annualized in 2023.

  • The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in Q2, the fourth consecutive quarter of solid economic growth.
  • Growth in Q2 was broad-based, fueled by consumer and government spending, and business investment.

Economic tailwinds for growth in 2023 include:

  • The labor market, which remains a pillar of strength, adding over 2.3 million jobs in 2023 as of September.
  • Consumer spending, which remains a crucial driver of economic growth. 
  • Retail sales growth was higher than expected over the summer with strong spending at e-tailers, sporting goods stores, and restaurants and bars, usually the first areas where consumers pull back. 
  • Despite rising debt levels, consumers kept the U.S. economic engine turning during Q2 and Q3 2023.

Economic headwinds include:

  • Consumer debt as growing concerns persist for deteriorating consumer financial health.
  • A global economic slowdown with Eurozone countries facing headwinds and global inflation, falling prices in China raising concerns of a “deflationary trap,” and flagging global demand potentially reducing U.S. exports and business investment.
  • Inflation, which eased significantly since last year, but is still above the Fed’s target.
  • Oil price fluctuations posing a challenge as the Fed tries to control inflation.
  • Labor strike activity, including the United Auto Workers strike, one of nine strikes in August involving more than 1,000 workers.

◊ Equipment and software investment is expected to grow at a 3.0 percent pace in 2023.

  •    E&S investment growth was strong in Q2, but early indications suggest that investment may weaken in Q3 and Q4 as credit availability has continued to tighten.

New business volume growth reported in ELFA’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index was up 2.8 percent year to date in August, a deceleration from August 2022 when year-to-date growth was 5.0 percent.

  • After strong growth in early 2023, YTD new business volume growth softened in Q2 and Q3 in the face of interest rates and tightening lending standards.

Prepared by Keybridge Research and updated quarterly, the snapshot is available for free download at

For more equipment finance and leasing  industry news, visit Equipment Finance Advisor.


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