Global consulting firm J.S. Held reveals the “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held.  The third quarter survey results highlight the persisting lender views on policy decisions and their national/global impacts. 

Phoenix’s Q3 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Thirty-nine percent of lenders are paying the most attention to overall political uncertainty, while another 36% of lenders believe overall policy risk (focused on interest rates) has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders also remained moderately concerned about the possibility of a US recession, but much less so than in Q2. See the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey. 

Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Over half of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital, while introducing new products and making acquisitions both yielded around 35% of surveyed lenders expressing those plans for their customers, a meaningfully higher amount than in Q2, reflecting greater optimism.

Fifty-five percent of respondents identified the retail trade industry as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed by the real estate (rentals/leasing) industry at 40% of respondents.

Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. Q3 results showed a slight migration from maintain to relax, as the tariff situation stabilizes and lenders begin to migrate away from their previous “wait and see” approach.

Lender optimism in the US economy increased for the near term, moving from 2.10 in Q2 2025 to 2.58. In this current quarter, while expectations for the US economy’s performance in the longer term also increased from 2.53 to 2.71, both are indicative of a stabilizing outlook regarding tariffs and a continued expectation for a reduction in interest rates. 

“Borrowers are increasingly planning for expansion and acquisitions, and lenders are showing a more optimistic outlook for U.S. economic performance in both the short and long term,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director at J.S. Held. “We’re seeing a slight shift toward relaxing loan standards, a trend we expect to continue through the end of 2025, especially if the Fed moves forward with the anticipated interest rate reduction.”