Phoenix Management, a Part of J.S. Held Lending Survey Results Reveal Continued Concern About Political Uncertainty 

Following the meeting of the US Federal Reserve yesterday, global consulting firm J.S. Held reveals the “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The fourth quarter survey results highlight the persisting lender views on policy decisions and their national/global impacts. 

Phoenix’s Q4 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Forty-six percent of lenders think political uncertainty will have the strongest impact on the economy, while 41% of lenders believe geopolitical risk (war) has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders continue to believe that the possibility of a U.S. recession and upcoming FOMC interest rate decisions will impact the economy. To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please click here. 

Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Almost two-thirds of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital, while 30%+ of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will introduce new products and make acquisitions.

Forty-three percent of respondents identified the retail trade industry as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed by the healthcare (social assistance) industry at 38% of respondents.

Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. For larger loan structures (greater than $25M), the plan to maintain loan structures remained relatively constant from Q3 to Q4, increasing by 9%. As loan sizes decrease, lenders plan to maintain their loan structures. Loans in the range of $15-25M and $5-15M saw very similar structure changes from Q3 to Q4. Loans under $5M had no change in structure.

Lender optimism in the U.S. economy decreased for the near term, moving from 2.58 in Q3 2025 to 2.38. In this current quarter, there is heavy expectation of a B level performance (49%), with a majority of the remainder (41%) sitting at a C level. Lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term also decreased from 2.71 to 2.46. Of the lenders surveyed, 54% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a B level during the next twelve months, virtually no change from the prior quarter. Performance expectations at the D level increased by 5%, matching the increase at a C level.

“Lenders are signaling heightened caution as political uncertainty and geopolitical risks dominate near-term economic concerns,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead at J.S. Held. “Confidence in the U.S. economy continues to erode, with short-term grades slipping from a weighted average of 2.58 in Q3 to 2.38 in Q4, and long-term expectations following the same downward trend. While most lenders plan to maintain current loan structures, a notable 21% anticipate tightening terms, even as 77% expect further Fed rate cuts in the coming months. Industry volatility is projected to rise sharply in healthcare, consumer products, and finance, underscoring a challenging environment for borrowers and investors alike.”