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Phoenix Lending Survey Results Shows Positive Long Term Economy Outlook

May 27, 2016, 08:08 AM
Filed Under: Economy

From the second quarter Phoenix Management “Lending Climate in America” Survey, results shows a positive long term economy outlook with lenders becoming more optimistic about the U.S. economy in the next 6-12 months.

The 2Q 2016 survey results reversed the previous quarter’s results of a higher near term GPA than a long term GPA. Lenders confidence on how they expect the U.S. economy to perform during the next 6 months dropped 11 points from a 2.00 to a 1.89. On the contrary, their GPA for the U.S. economy beyond the next 6 months increased 9 points from a 2.02 in Q1 to a 2.11. The majority of lenders (64%) continue to believe that unstable energy prices will have the strongest impact on the economy over the next 6 months.

Lenders have also indicated an increase in the percentage of their customers expecting strong growth in the next 6-12 months, and the percentage of lenders anticipating that their customers will experience no growth decreased by 6 percentage points to 21%.

Lenders were also surveyed this quarter in regards to the Federal Reserve’s gauge of manufacturing, mining and utility output falling 1.8% in the first quarter, from a year earlier. Although records dating back to 1919 show that industrial production has never decreased so deeply in a year that did not include a recession, 38% of the lenders surveyed believe that the decrease is not a precursor of the U.S. slipping into another recession within the next 12 months. They believe that the decrease in industrial production is misleading as it is largely driven by a decrease in mining due to historically low oil prices. Furthermore, lenders were asked which industries they believe will experience the most volatility over the next 6 months. Garnering the highest amount of results were the 71% of lenders that believe a) mining, and b) retail trade will experience the greatest volatility, while 36% agree on manufacturing.

“For the first time since Q4 2014 a small number of lenders believe the economy will perform at an 'A' level in the next six to twelve months, and we saw a decrease in the percent of lenders that believe that economy will perform at a 'D' level,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Shareholder of Phoenix. “Although these movements are modest, we may be looking at a positive turning point for the U.S. economy over the next 6-12 months from the previous quarter’s increasing pessimistic view.”

To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit

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