Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 3% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue grew 4% during the same period.
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Middle market companies showed solid revenue and profit growth in the third quarter, underscoring the resilience of the U.S. economy. Our third quarter data is consistent with patterns we saw throughout the first half of the year: steady U.S. economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than 2024, and broadly healthy consumer spending. We also saw across our portfolio companies last quarter that the bonus depreciation provisions of the July tax bill helped unclog capital expenditure decision-making. As these capital investments flow through the economy, we expect them to provide a tailwind for growth.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “Our data suggests that U.S. companies continued to successfully navigate a challenging and uncertain environment in the third quarter. Profit margins generally were stable and, in the case of our Healthcare and Technology sector samples, modestly expanded. This suggests that companies in our sample continued to exercise pricing power and maintain cost discipline—boosting cash flow even before the effects of the Fed’s rate cut in September and the future cuts expected by the market.”
The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.
The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.
We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy; and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.
The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by industry segment. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors, among others.