Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 5% during the first two months of the second quarter of 2025. Revenue grew 2% during the same period.
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Middle market companies continued in the second quarter to demonstrate resilience and adaptability as tariff and tax uncertainty continued. Our data shows revenue and earnings growth in April and May within our sample of U.S. businesses that sell primarily to U.S. customers, which suggests the economy remained on a healthy foundation. The July enactment of the BBB tax bill should strengthen consumer disposable income and confidence. The tariff uncertainty continues to be a drag on business capital expenditure decision making, but the U.S. economy is performing fine. When the tariff situation reaches stability, we expect growth to accelerate.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “Our data offers a mostly encouraging early read on the performance of U.S. companies in the second quarter. I believe investors will find it particularly informative to observe continued strong average company-level performance as an economic indicator during this period when aggregate GDP calculations and forecasts may be distorted by abnormal and volatile import behavior in anticipation of possible tariffs. Within the Golub Capital Altman Index, the continued strong revenue and EBITDA growth of the Technology sector stands out as evidence that the value proposition of productivity-enhancing, mission-critical B2B software solutions remains compelling in today’s uncertain environment.”
The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.
The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.
We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy; and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.
The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by industry segment. Effective Q2 2025, the Golub Capital Middle Market Report discontinued publication of the Industrials sector index due to insufficient sample size. Industrials companies are included in the median revenue and EBITDA growth calculations for the overall Golub Capital Altman Index and will remain included in the aggregate in future quarters. The Golub Capital Middle Market Report will periodically reevaluate resuming publication of the Industrials sector index based on trends in the sample size. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors.