Entering 2025 in an already weakened state, newfound economic uncertainty has only added to our expectation of yet another challenging year for for-hire carriers and the commercial vehicle industry, as published in the latest release of the ACT Research North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

“Tractor market demand was already under pressure from uncertainty alone, but preliminary data show the weaker economic outlook is now weighing further on demand,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 order data for April of 7,600 units, a 52% y/y decline, represented a 59-month low, a level unseen since the onset of the pandemic, when uncertainty was comparably high.”

Vieth noted if there is a silver lining for the industry, it is the expected delay in targeted GHG-3 mandates that promised to make for a particularly challenging environment in the 2028-2030 period, as different segments of the Class 8 market were targeted.

"Trump’s EPA, while still on the fence for the EPA’s Clean Truck mandate in 2027, has signaled that GHG-3 is viewed as regulatory overreach and unlikely to survive, allowing forecasts to float higher,” he concluded.

“In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the US, the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted. Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks,” Vieth said.