Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Revenue grew 2% during the same period.
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Middle market companies demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Our data suggests that U.S. economic growth has a broader foundation than AI-related capital expenditures. We believe our data from the months of October and November offer encouraging insight about a period when economic data may be limited. Companies in our sample generally showed continued resiliency despite the challenges of a government shutdown, tariff costs and signs of cautious consumer behavior.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “Our data suggests U.S. companies continued to perform steadily and navigate a challenging and uncertain environment. Robust revenue for healthy enterprise software companies in our Technology sector shows how companies that are not AI hyperscalers are growing at a steady clip. While investors should remain mindful that we are in a continued period of heightened credit stress and elevated default rates, our data shows that the core middle market continues to adapt well to this environment.”
The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.
The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.
We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy; and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.
Effective January 1, 2026, Golub Capital enhanced its data collection capabilities, providing for more comprehensive data from an expanded sample of GCAI constituents. We believe our enhanced data collection capabilities increase data quality and strengthen the analytical rigor of future reports. Backtesting has confirmed historical comparability. The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by certain industry segments. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors, among others.